After dipping to a low of $95, Nvidia ($NVDA) shares have seen a notable turnaround, climbing past $100 and continuing upward in pre-market trading today, surpassing $103. This recent movement has prompted speculation: is this the beginning of a true recovery, or just another short-lived bounce in a broader downtrend?
Caution is still warranted. A similar price rebound occurred earlier this month, but ultimately faltered. Back on April 7, Nvidia stock reached a local low of $86—part of a broader decline that began in late January, when shares were trading above $140.
That initial recovery seemed promising. Within two days, NVDA surged to $115, a swift rebound of over 30%. However, this rally was short-lived. By April 16, the stock had slumped again, hitting a second low—this time around $95, higher than the April 7 bottom. These two rising low points may indicate a potential trend reversal, yet the failure of the first bounce tempers optimism.
Unlike the previous sharp swing, the current rally has been more moderate and steady. Where the last surge posted an 11% single-day gain, the current rise is under 2%—suggesting a potentially more sustainable momentum.
Context and Historical Trend
Nvidia’s long-term upward trend began in January 2023, continuing—despite volatility—until peaking in November 2024. Since then, the stock entered a sideways phase marked by heightened price swings between $110 and $150, which persisted until mid-February this year.
Late February brought a shift to a downward trajectory, culminating in the $86 low earlier this month. While recent price action suggests a possible bottoming out, with consecutive higher lows, it’s still too early to confirm a new bullish phase without additional evidence.
Interestingly, current price levels mirror those seen in August 2024, when shares dipped briefly to $90 before rebounding. At that time, too, the stock charted two ascending lows ($90 and $100), spaced about a month apart—similar to the current setup.
This pattern may indicate the end of the bearish trend, though investors will likely wait for stronger signals before fully reentering the market with confidence.
What’s Driving the Recent Uptick?
The initial dip came amid political uncertainty, as former President Donald Trump hinted at removing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. However, Trump later clarified he has no intention of doing so, easing market tensions.
Adding to the positive sentiment, recent comments from both Washington and Beijing hinted at progress in reducing trade tariffs—an encouraging sign for companies with global exposure like Nvidia. Broader markets have responded as well; the S&P 500 has gained about 9% since the April 7 low.
Still, not all news has been favorable. Nvidia recently disclosed potential delays in one of its upcoming chip releases due to manufacturing issues. Although the market appears to have already priced in this development, further setbacks could hinder any sustained recovery.
Meanwhile, some major investment firms have trimmed their one-year price targets for Nvidia but continue to forecast significant upside, keeping targets above $150—a roughly 40% increase from current levels.
Overall, while recent events suggest improving sentiment and a potential end to the downturn, the market may require more concrete developments before fully embracing a new bullish trend.