Speculation is mounting around a potential 50% surge in Bitcoin’s price, driven by a recurring pattern observed in past market cycles. Analysts suggest that if this setup plays out again in the coming months, Bitcoin could climb as high as $150,000.
A Pattern Rooted in U.S. Economic Signals
The basis for this forecast lies in a combination of macroeconomic indicators in the United States. Historically, Bitcoin has posted major gains—exceeding 50%—when three specific conditions align:
Low leverage in financial markets
Stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales
Hawkish monetary signals from the Federal Reserve
These three conditions are tied to broader economic metrics like inflation, interest rates, and the overall risk appetite in markets.
This specific alignment has occurred at least three times in recent years: July 2021, early 2023, and early 2024. Each time, Bitcoin rallied significantly—76%, just over 50%, and over 80%, respectively.
Historical Comparisons
In July 2021, the annualized funding rate for Bitcoin was near zero, U.S. retail sales exceeded forecasts, and a later speech by the Fed chair at Jackson Hole hinted at tapering quantitative easing. This triggered a major price rally through September.
Again, in January 2023, funding rates remained relatively low, retail data beat expectations, and the Fed issued strong statements on maintaining a restrictive monetary stance—spurring another sharp price increase.
Most recently, January 2024 saw similarly low funding rates and robust retail sales. The Fed also reaffirmed its commitment to high interest rates, and Bitcoin responded with yet another strong surge.
Present Market Conditions
As of now, Bitcoin’s funding rates are comparable to, or even lower than, those seen in January 2024. March retail sales were slightly above expectations and notably higher than the previous 12-month average—though some analysts attribute this spike to consumers front-loading purchases due to new tariffs.
April sales, however, are projected to fall sharply, although a more moderate decline could again beat expectations, fulfilling the second condition in the pattern.
The challenge lies in the Fed’s next policy move. For the pattern to fully reoccur, markets would need to be caught off guard by unexpectedly hawkish commentary from the central bank.
Currently, markets widely expect no rate cut in May, but many anticipate one in June. If Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during the May 7 press conference, were to suggest that June cuts are off the table, this could complete the triad of conditions.
Can History Repeat?
It’s important to note that while this pattern has previously coincided with Bitcoin rallies, correlation doesn’t guarantee causation. Other forces—especially the Dollar Index (DXY)—may play a more decisive role. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to rise when the DXY weakens, and the dollar has shown signs of softening in recent weeks.
In that context, the re-emergence of this pattern could act as a catalyst—not the cause—for a rebound driven by dollar weakness. If the greenback continues to decline in May, it may create favorable conditions for Bitcoin to break higher.
Conclusion
While a 50% increase in Bitcoin’s price is far from certain, current market dynamics suggest the possibility isn’t out of reach. Should the pattern seen in 2021, 2023, and 2024 emerge again, and if the Fed surprises investors with more restrictive policy signals, the stage may be set for another bullish breakout—possibly pushing Bitcoin toward the $150,000 mark.